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Euro Manganese Inc.

ASX:EMN

Last Price:

$0.210

Our Investment Summary

Date of Initial Coverage

04-Sep-20

Initial Entry Price

$0.065

Returns from Initial Entry

223%


Investment Memo:

Euro Manganese Inc. (ASX:EMN)

- LIVE

Opened: 17-Jun-2022

Shares Held at Open: 1,733,000


What does EMN do?

Euro Manganese (ASX:EMN) is developing a High Purity Manganese project in the European Union (Czech Republic) through the recycling of a tailings resource from a historical mine site.

What is the macro theme?

Manganese is a key input for EV batteries and European nations are adopting pro EV policies with the ultimate aim of phasing out fossil fuel powered vehicles by 2035.

The EU region currently accounts for ~45% of all EV sales. With the size of the global EV fleet expected to grow from 11 million now to ~145 million in 2030, we expect domestic demand for battery metals like manganese to increase exponentially.

Why did we invest in EMN?

Unique exposure to High Purity Manganese

Increasing demand is not being met with increasing supply because the demand outlook is less clear in the short-term. However we have made our investment ahead of time, anticipating exponentially higher demand in the future. EMN has five MOU's signed to supply customers with product as part of the supply-chain qualification process. These, if successful, could form the basis for long-term off-take agreements.

Strategically located in Europe

EMN is strategically located in the heart of Europe, where over 25 EV plants and 30 battery plants will soon be operating. High Purity Manganese is a key raw-material in their supply chain. With VW and Daimler committing to EUR$34/EUR$60B+ in investments over the next 5-10 years into their battery metals supply-chain, EMN may benefit from the increased domestic demand.

New CEO - Appointed in December 2021

We are looking forward to what Dr. Matthew James can accomplish for EMN in 2022/2023. Dr. James is particularly skilled at getting major mining projects operational having helped Lynas raise over A$1 billion of equity and debt funding between 2002 and 2011.

What do we expect EMN to deliver?

Objective #1: Construction of the Demonstration Plant

EMN has designed a Demonstration Plant to produce large-scale samples of High Purity Manganese products. The plant will enable the company to show potential off-take partners they have production capabilities & a commercially viable product. Commissioning of the plant is now expected in September 2022.

Milestones

Receive final shipment of Demonstration Plant Parts (July 2022)

Commission Demonstration Plant (September 2022)

First delivery of samples to customers (Q4 2022)

Objective #2: Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS)

The DFS will give an updated look at EMN's project economics & assist with the financing process going into a final investment decision. Expected in the second half of 2022.

Milestones

Delivery of Definitive Feasibility Study (late Q2 - early Q3 2022)

Objective #3: First Offtake Partner

Large scale samples of High Purity Manganese need to be assessed for quality by end users who then sign an offtake agreement for future supply - an offtake agreement would be a major achievement for EMN in 2022.

Milestones

First offtake partner (Q3 2022?)

Bonus: second offtake partner (Q1-Q2 2023?)

Objective #4: Early Progress on Project Financing

With a new CEO at EMN that is skilled in financing resource development projects, it would be a win to see some early progress on 2023 financing goals come from these offtake agreements.

Milestones

New institutional investor/further institutional investment

Debt or equity financing agreement

What could go wrong?

Product risk

EMN’s Demonstration Plant is unable to produce qualified, commercially viable High-Purity Manganese products that are of interest to potential customers.

Development risk

Tailings recycling projects inherently have a lower-grade ore versus conventional deposits, which can impact the project’s economics, sometimes making it non-viable to operate a tailings mine. Additionally, development of the project also hinges on successful processing of manganese tailings and scaling that operation to produce economic quantities of the product.

Regulatory / permitting risks

Every mine needs a social licence to operate and there are risks associated with any new mining development.

Market risk

There’s a risk that manganese prices decrease and a tailings resource is not seen as attractive to investors, or there is a general market collapse/financial crisis.

Financing risk

Due to a combination of any or all of the above risks, financing for the project is hard to come by or unavailable, and the project does not become operational.

What is our investment plan?

We invested in EMN at 6.5¢, 20¢ and 60¢. We have held EMN shares for over 21 months now and have free carried and taken some profit. We continue to hold 1,733,000 shares of EMN.

We are very interested to see if the new CEO can increase the pace at which the 2022/2023 objectives are achieved.

During the next 12 months if some of the key objectives are achieved and the share price re-rates we will aim to sell about 20% of our position to take some profit. Our long term aim is to hold a position into first production in 2025.


Disclosure: The authors of this article and owners of Next Investors, S3 Consortium Pty Ltd, and associated entities, own 1,733,000 EMN shares at the time of publication. S3 Consortium Pty Ltd has been engaged by EMN to share our commentary on the progress of our investment in EMN over time.


Investment Milestones for EMN

✅ Initial Investment: @6.5c
✅ Top Slice
✅ Free Carry
✅ Increase Investment: @20c
✅ Free Carry
✅ Increase Investment: @60c
✅ Free Carry
✅ Increase Investment: @60c
✅ Free Carry
✅ Take Profit

Price increases 300% from initial entry
Price increases 500% from initial entry
Price increases 1000% from initial entry
12 Month Capital Gain Discount
🔲 Hold remaining Position for next 2+ years

Our Past Commentary on Euro Manganese Inc.

Date Title
20-May-2023 $ 0.220 Why are small caps going down and new lithium commentary
16-May-2023 $ EMN’s North American manganese ambitions - crucial on spec product to come
22-Apr-2023 $ 0.225 5 Battery Materials Stocks for 2023
12-Jan-2023 $ EMN signs offtake term sheet with French battery maker to supply Renault
07-Dec-2022 $ EMN Update - We Have a Demo Plant. Now for Offtake Deals
08-Aug-2022 $ 0.400 Why do small-caps take so long to execute?
05-Aug-2022 $ EMN DFS delivers US$1.34 billion post-tax Net Present Value
12-Feb-2022 $ 0.500 Energy Transition Metals, Raw Materials, McKinsey, Supply and Demand Economics
05-Feb-2022 $ 0.470 The "Lesser Kown" Energy Transition Metals: Copper, Aluminium, Graphite, Helium, Rare Earths
08-Jan-2022 $ 0.550 Early-year trading indicates market is set for an up-and-down year
05-Jan-2022 $ New Year, New Strategic Investor and New CEO for EMN
06-Nov-2021 $ 0.560 COP26, Battery Metals, Green Energy
09-Oct-2021 $ 0.480 Investing 101: Key lessons for small cap investors
05-Oct-2021 $ 0.525 EMN Enters Joint Development Agreement with Battery Tech Developer Nano One
24-Jul-2021 $ 0.665 Why stocks go into "Quiet Execution Mode", how to spot a cap raise, stock "Confession Season"
22-Jul-2021 $ EMN successfully secures government permits - while other ASX battery metals aspirants hit hurdles.
17-Jul-2021 $ 0.635 Cash is King, Gold Stocks and Enough of VUL and EMN
16-Jul-2021 $ 0.615 VUL and EMN: Key takeaways out of Europe this week
13-Jul-2021 $ 0.585 Two more key events coming out of Europe in the next 48 hours...
10-Jul-2021 $ 0.560 Breaking News: Stellantis signs offtake MoU with VUL
09-Jul-2021 $ 0.560 Stellantis EV Day: Mystery European Geothermal Lithium MoU & Manganese to be used in all batteries
08-Jul-2021 $ 0.520 Move over Musk. Yet Another Auto giant to reveal Electric strategy tonight at 11:30pm AEST
03-Jul-2021 $ 0.540 End of Financial Year, and what happened to 88E's share price?
19-Jun-2021 $ 0.530 What is Tax Loss Selling?
16-Jun-2021 $ 0.580 Last night VW announced it wants to secure battery metals directly from miners...
11-Jun-2021 $ G7 Summit: Countries to Switch To Electric Vehicles
29-May-2021 $ 0.520 Green Hydrogen in the news, Investment Milestones released, stock portfolio news
24-May-2021 $ EMN Releases Operations Update as Global Manganese Supply Tightens
27-Apr-2021 $ 0.590 Our Portfolio Performance from January 1st to March 31st 2021
25-Mar-2021 $ Our Battery Metals Pick EMN Announces Game Changing New Investor
23-Mar-2021 $ 0.680 TRIPLE DOWN ALERT - Plus 6 Hot Stocks
16-Mar-2021 $ 4 Key Takeaways from VW’s Power Day
16-Mar-2021 $ 0.645 Power Day Launches Volkswagen’s EU Electric Vehicle Future
12-Mar-2021 $ In 72 hours Volkswagen will make an Electric Announcement
05-Mar-2021 $ 0.470 Our Top Two Stocks to Cop a Post-Drop Price Pop
23-Feb-2021 $ 0.650 EMN Joins an Exclusive Club: EIT InnoEnergy has Entered the Game
23-Feb-2021 $ EMN receives support from EU backed organisation to accelerate development
18-Jan-2021 $ 0.765 EMN Reached an Important Milestone on Friday
12-Jan-2021 $ 0.555 What we are Watching Over the Next 48 Hours
07-Jan-2021 $ 0.505 Our Stock Picks for 2021
18-Dec-2020 $ 0.415 New EU Regulations to Drive our Second Biggest Holding - EMN
11-Dec-2020 $ 0.460 EU Climate Policy - Battery Materials Supply Regulations Leaked?
13-Nov-2020 $ 0.255 EMN to Ride Global Battery Metals Surge
07-Oct-2020 $ EMN Developing Battery Grade Manganese Supply
23-Sep-2020 $ 0.140 Tesla’s Elon Musk Makes Manganese a Priority: Could EMN Be Front and Centre of EU Supply Chain
04-Sep-2020 $ 0.062 Introducing Our Next EU Battery Metals Portfolio Investment – Our Previous Pick is Up 311%